Local developers in Thailand have predicted a slowdown in the country’s property market over the next couple of months as concerns surrounding oversupply take hold.

However, positive sentiment is expected to return again early next year, with the sector expected to get back on track, Property Report explains.

Mayta Chanchamcharat, director of Pruksa Real Estate, said concerns about a possible property bubble in Bangkok have calmed the market due to a retreat of speculators and investors.

“Due to the market concerns of some areas being flooded by oversupply and the property bubble, the market now doesn’t seem to absorb the existing supply of residential units as fast as before,” he added.

In addition, Mr Chanchamcharat said that the Bank of Thailand’s announcement that it would be capping condominium mortgages at 90 per cent from January 1st was also making investors hesitate.

Meanwhile, earlier this year the news provider reported that the country’s Agency for Real Estate Affairs had raised concerns about the possible formation of a bubble in the real estate market.

Source: propertyshowrooms

Bangkok’s condominium market is expected to slow down next year, but the number of newly launched units could still reach 40,000-50,000 without causing an oversupply.

This estimated range matches the number of newly launched units from July to November of this year, 48,973, which was higher than for all of 2007, the peak year for the condominium sector.

Phanom Kanjanathiemthao, managing director of the property consultant Knight Frank Thailand, said about 60% of those newly launched units have been sold, demonstrating strong demand for city condos.

“A bubble or an oversupply will depend on the amount of new supply being launched next year,” he said while expressing confidence that introducing less than 10,000 new units per quarter will not cause an oversupply.

Company research pegs the usual number of new launches in each quarter at 3,000-6,000 units, with a take-up rate of 50-60%.

This year’s first quarter saw 7,000-8,000 condominium units launched with about 75% sold, while the second quarter had 960 units with 80% sold in addition to the 48,973 units with 60% sold from July to November.

Half of these were priced at 1-2 million baht apiece, while most had been postponed from planned 2009 launches.

Bangkok will see a continued rise in its condo supply, especially in peripheral areas where each project comprises large numbers of units.

Demand continues to increase but not as quickly as supply. Major players will launch units to tap high demand in the low end of the market stemming largely from lower land costs and the availability of large numbers of plots.

Developers are also focusing on smaller units for greater affordability in the market.

Bangkok’s condo market is expected to focus more on medium- and low-income buyers, as the high-end market has experienced a lower take-up rate.

Foreign buyers will need more time to recover their confidence in Thailand’s political situation, while local buying interest centres on units located near mass transit routes.

Bangkok’s overall condominium supply was 167,815 units as of last Tuesday, with new launches skyrocketing in the second half.

The newly launched units were located mostly in those peripheral areas of the city where BTS and MRT extensions are planned in the near future. This group accounted for 77% of the total, with its market driven by local demand.

The number of units launched in the central business district (CBD) represented 5% of the total, while the city’s fringe areas saw 18%.

Most condos launched in the July to November period were grade C. During that period, only one grade A project comprising 240 units was launched in Bangkok.

As well, 26% of the units in the period were located along existing BTS routes and 17% along the existing MRT route. Another 19% were along the coming BTS Light Green and Dark Green lines.

At the same time, 20% were located in non-mass-transit areas, 10% near future routes and 8% near the Airport Rail Link.

Knight Frank used the unit take-up for new launches in the period as an indicator of market demand. This totalled 29,358 units or 60% of the total, while the take-up in the second quarter was 769 of the 960 units or about 80%.

Condo demand in the peripheral areas was large, with 22,088 units taken up from July to November. However, additional supply in such areas was large, resulting in the lowest take-up rate at 58.5%, with most of the demand from Thais.

Demand within the CBD was 1,637 units with a take-up rate of 62.3%, whereas the take-up rate in city fringe areas was the highest at 65.4% or 5,633 units. The average asking price of Bangkok condominiums increased in all segments, while the average asking price of premium grades was stable due to political instability decreasing foreign demand.

Source : bangkokpost.com

for both new projects and resales, Bangkok CitiSmart chief executive officer Pumipat Sinacharoen said.

The prices of condominiums close to mass transit have risen significantly

Since the 1997 economic crisis, the prices of condos close to the mass-transit system have risen by an average 10-20 per cent a year. Some locations on Sukhumvit Road that had prices averaging Bt78,065 per square metre in 2006 are now priced at Bt121,916 per square metre, up nearly 100 per cent.

While a number of property developers have launched new residential projects in this location, demand has continued to grow because of a lifestyle change from big families to small families. Most younger people starting to work need to stay by themselves, and as a result select condominiums, either new or on the resale market.

Meanwhile, demand for condominiums in areas such as Srinakarin Road, Ngamwongwan Road and Chaeng Wattana Road has also seen high growth because those locations have communities that serve their lifestyle.

“We believe that condominium prices will increase by an average of 5 or 10 per cent a year. The growth rate may be lower than in the past, but it is still growth,” Pumipat said.

Limited land and rising oil prices are the main factors boosting the demand for condominiums.

The Bank of Thailand measure to control the condominium market by setting the loan-to-value cap at 90 per cent effective on January 1 has little impact on demand for condos priced higher than Bt2 million per unit and in the resale market. Most people who buy resale residences have enough savings to buy the home. More than 70 per cent of buyers in the resale market pay by cash or make down payments of more than 20 per cent, he said.

Bangkok CitiSmart is a subsidiary of Asian Property Development established in 2006.

Currently, the company’s portfolio has 11,000 units worth a total of Bt45 billion, and active customers for about 6,000 units worth Bt27 billion, Bt1.5 billion of that in Pattaya.

Source : nationmultimedia.com

Positive sentiment set to return next year

Oversupply fears are expected to slow the property market for the next few months but positive sentiment will resume next year supported by real demand, say industry executives.

Concerns about a possible property bubble in Bangkok and the Bank of Thailand’s announcement capping condominium mortgages at 90% of value from Jan 1 have quietened the market due to a retreat of speculators and investors, says Mayta Chanchamcharat, director and chief business officer at Pruksa Real Estate Plc.

“Due to the market concerns of some areas being flooded by oversupply and the property bubble, the market today does not absorb [condominium] units as fast as before,” Mr Mayta said.

The take-up rate of newly launched condominiums dropped to 45-50% this year from 70-90% in previous years.

Pruksa’s newly launched 1,390-unit condominium Fuse Mobius on Bangkok’s Ramkhamhaeng Road has recorded pre-sales of 60% since being launched four months ago.

However, Mr Mayta says the BoT measure does not interfere with the market and is beneficial for the property industry as a whole as it allows the market to adjust naturally in terms of demand and supply.

“Such concerns may have delayed speculators but real demand does not feel the impact as much,” he said. “It’s a preventive measure that makes everyone in the industry including buyers become more cautious, which will lessen the impact if problems do occur.”

Mr Mayta says only 30% of banks provide project finance of more than 90% of project value.

Wirote Kappiyajanya, Pruksa’s executive vice-president, says improving economic factors will soon bring back positive sentiment.

“Many developers may be delaying their project launches for the moment to keep an eye on whether the situation will become as many have feared,” he said. “But the impact will only linger for three to six months before giant developers resume their project expansion again.”

Seeing strong demand in lower-end condominiums, Pruksa plans at least two budget projects next year. Each project will be worth about 700 million baht, while unit prices will be below 1 million baht. However, the company has yet to finalise whether the units will fall under the Board of Investment requirement that units must be at least 28 square metres.

Visit Malaisirirat, managing director of Magnolia Quality Development Corp, also sees positive signs in the property market in the coming year.

He believes the mid-to-upper-end segment will continue to do well, although buyers have become increasingly cautious by selecting projects with experienced and strong developers.

With the impact of the strengthening baht on the purchasing power of European and American buyers, Magnolia is looking to focus more on tapping increasingly wealthy Chinese buyers.

Magnolia plans to develop five projects worth a combined 8-10 billion baht next year. Two will be condominiums, with one project worth 3 billion baht in Bangkok’s Bang Na district. Of two projects in Khao Yai, one will be a hotel worth 450 million baht.

The company will allocate 10 million baht in building a research and development centre in the second quarter next year. The Magnolia centre will serve as a showroom and a design knowledge centre for its clients and the public.

Magnolia targets sales this year of 900 million baht.

Pruksa (PS) shares closed yesterday on the Stock Exchange of Thailand at 20.60 baht, up 60 satang, in total trade of 308 million baht.

Source : bangkokpost.com

The property management office of Chulalongkorn University (CU) will start construction of a new building at the site of the burnt-out Siam Theatre next February, with work expected to take two years to complete.

CU recently finished demolishing the heavily damaged theatre and immediate retail space in Siam Square.

Estimates for renovating the nearly seven-rai plot were previously set at more than one billion baht. The redevelopment will see more floors and retail space.

Vice-president Permyot Kosolbhand said the university will set up a new committee to consider retail space allocations in the new building.

“We’ll consider former authorised retailers as prior potential tenants but also help those entrepreneurs who were genuinely affected but had sublet without authorisation,” he said.

CU has almost finished the process of verifying the status of retailers affected by the May arson attacks.

By next week, the university plans to move more than 200 retailers from temporary tents in Siam Square Sois 3 and 4 to new temporary retail lots nearby.

CU and the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration (BMA) have since last month joined to impose new prohibitions on hawkers selling at night on the pavement along Rama I Road. The university plans to develop this area.

The university and Pathumwan district office informed stall operators about the measure in September. From October, male staff identified by their pink CU polo shirts have worked to control the prohibited areas.

Many of the vendors have complained that these men have threatened them, but Dr Permyot insists that the university strictly abides by a policy of non-violence.

CU said staff will continue to patrol until it is certain no hawkers will return.

The property management office said a recent survey showed pedestrians and Siam Square retailers were happy with the anti-hawking measure. Out of 400 pedestrians, 96.8% of expressed satisfaction, while 89.5% of 150 retailers said they were pleased.

CU and the BMA are offering the nighttime hawkers new retail space in Chatuchak Square, a building located opposite Chatuchak outdoor market.

Rent will be waived for three years, but tenants will have to pay electricity, water and cleaning charges of 100 baht a day, increasing by 20% each year for the remaining two years.

Source : bangkokpost.com